Electoral Balancing | Jens Hainmueller

The Role of Government Type in Midterm Losses

In Lutz Kern and Hainmueller (2006), this study revisits the phenomenon of midterm losses in German elections, arguing that government type plays a crucial role in determining these outcomes. Using panel regressions on a newly compiled dataset covering all state elections from 1949 to 2004, the authors reveal that systematic midterm losses occur only when both chambers of the federal legislature (the Bundestag and Bundesrat) are controlled by the same party or coalition.

This previously overlooked regularity provides strong support for electoral balancing models, which suggest voters strategically counterbalance government power during midterms. These findings challenge traditional explanations for midterm losses and highlight the importance of institutional dynamics in shaping electoral outcomes.

References

Journal Articles

JLS

Electoral balancing, divided government and ‘midterm’loss in German elections

Holger Lutz Kern, and Jens Hainmueller

The Journal of Legislative Studies, 2006

DOI Bib HTML PDF

@article{lutz2006electoral,
  title = {Electoral balancing, divided government and ‘midterm’loss in German elections},
  author = {Lutz Kern, Holger and Hainmueller, Jens},
  journal = {The Journal of Legislative Studies},
  volume = {12},
  number = {2},
  pages = {127--149},
  year = {2006},
  publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
  doi = {10.1080/13572330600738845},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13572330600738845},
}